ConnectSF

“An abundance of scientific studies says the bay’s average tide could climb several feet or more by 2100, with most change coming in the decades after 2050.”

John King, SF Chronicle

As sea levels continue to rise due to the melting of arctic ice, San Francisco’s waterfront will be prone to increased flooding. Already, the current sea wall floods multiple times a year due to king tides, causing bay water to submerge portions of the Embarcadero walking path and roadway. A majority of San Francisco’s job centers – the Financial District, SoMa, and Mission Bay – are located on or near this vulnerable waterfront.

• A Regional Response to the bay’s encroaching waters, SF Chronicle, May 2016
• Why Cities Are the Solution to Global Climate Change, c40
• (Videos) Climate Change: Oh, It’s Real. TED Talks Playlist
• (Video) The World’s First Comprehensive Plan to Reverse Global Warming, Paul Hawken, What’s Now: San Francisco, March 2017

“By 2040 the San Francisco Bay Area is projected to add 2.4 million people, increasing total regional population from 7.2 million to 9.6 million, an increase of 30 percent or roughly 1 percent per year.”

Association of Bay Area Governments (2016)

Several population megatrends will impact the Bay Area in the coming decades. Across the US, cities and metropolitan areas are becoming more racially diverse, with one important consequence being a possible shift in the electorate. Even as Boomers live longer and retire later, Millennials – or the generation born between the early 1980s to the mid-1990s – will become the largest generation in the nation. Meanwhile, in counties and cities around the nation, the middle class is shrinking, with repercussions impacting all aspects of society. All these trends will also influence life in the Bay Area, as the region grows to almost 10 million residents by 2040.

• Plan Bay Area 2040, Association of Bay Area Governments and Metropolitan Transportation Commission, April 2017
• 10 demographic trends that are shaping the U.S. and the world, Pew Research Center, March 2016

“The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities has updated its earthquake forecast and determined there is a 72 percent probability — up from 63 percent — of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in the Bay Area before 2043.”

Mark Prado, Mercury News

Earthquake risk is a fundamental fact of life in the Bay Area. Recently, that risk has grown even more pronounced with the discovery that two major faults – the Hayward Fault and the Rodger’s Creek Fault – are likely connected. This discovery raises the likelihood of a major earthquake hitting the Bay Area in the next thirty years from an already high 63% to an even more alarming 72% chance. Additionally, a large portion of the Bay Area is at high risk for liquefaction, or the point at which solid ground turns liquid during a seismic event, amplifying the danger earthquakes represent. The need to retrofit critical assets – from bridges to houses – is beginning to be widely recognized.

• Bay Area earthquake probabilities increase, updated USGS forecast says, Mercury News, January 2017
• The next earthquake to hit the Bay Area could be stronger than we thought, The Verge, October 2016
• The most dangerous fault in America, EARTH Magazine, May 2016
• When, not if: how do San Franciscans live with the threat of the next quake?, The Guardian, March 2014

“Transit in America continues to grow, carrying 10.5 billion trips in 2015, and adding new lines and systems every year, yet the symptoms of overdue maintenance and underinvestment have never been clearer.”

Infrastructure Report Card 2017

Critical infrastructure in San Francisco is reaching the end of its useful life:

• Over 300 miles of the sewer system is at least 100 years old and not designed to withstand seismic activity.
• Pavements in the City’s nearly 13,000 blocks are rated in aggregate as “at-risk,” according to the Pavement Condition Index, 2017.
• Bay Area agencies are working together on a “core capacity” study aimed at addressing increasingly crowded public transit to downtown San Francisco, much of which is dependent on a system that is over 40 years old.

A significant level of investment is needed in the near future as a result of a general lack of funding for maintenance in the past.

• (Infographic) Why San Francisco Needs an Upgraded Sewer System, San Francisco Public Utilities Commission
• Pavement Condition Index, City Performance Scorecards, March 2017
• Core Capacity Transit Study, Metropolitan Transportation Commission, February 2017
• Infrastructure Report Card 2017, American Society of Civil Engineers

“People trust their peers much more than they trust their political leaders or news organizations.”
Uri Friedman, Atlantic

Public trust in the government has dropped to a historic low in the last two years, with less than 20% of the American people trusting Washington DC to do what is right even “most of the time,” according to Gallup. This lack of trust can have a real impact on the ability for governmental bodies to effect positive change in their communities: taxation for services, changes to infrastructure, and planning regulations are often met with hostility by a suspicious community.

• Trust in Government Index, Gallup, 2017
• Trust in Government Is Collapsing Around the World, Atlantic, July 2016
• 6 key takeaways about how Americans view their government, Pew Research Center, November 2015
• Behind America’s Crisis of Confidence: Government of, by, and for Special Interests, National Review, January 2016

“The tech industry is in for a sea change, leading to a potential tripling of demand for tech-related goods and services over the next decade.”
Tim Bajarin, Time

Advances in computation have exploded since the invention of the modern computer in the mid-20th Century. A similar speed of innovation can be observed in the changes in vehicle technology, be it the expansion of automated processes, the introduction of new safety features, or the increasing role of computers in vehicle function. With computation innovations have come pervasive information and “democratization” of data. For example, advances in mobile mapping have fundamentally altered the way people perceive space. Technological innovations will only continue in the coming decades with even wider implications for daily life. With these advancements, transportation could change substantially with a shift from ownership to app-based services, the rise of robot and/or drone delivery, and the greater use and integration of data in everyday travel decision-making.

• 7 Reasons the Tech Sector Is Set for Explosive Growth, Time, September 2016
• The data revolution is coming and it will unlock the corridors of power, The Guardian, October 2014
• Moore’s Law Is Dead. Now What? MIT Technology Review, May 2016
• (Video) The Inevitable: The Next 30 Years in Tech with Kevin Kelly, Kevin Kelly, Reinvent, June 2016
• (podcast) The Box that AI Lives In, Seth Stevenson, Slate, September 2018

How the economy shifts, grows, and contracts has direct implications for community growth and development, which can in turn determine travel patterns. For example, the more common an 8-5 work culture becomes, the more concentrated congestion at peak periods will be. On the contrary, if automation depletes the job supply, travel will likely become more distributed throughout the day and more affordable mobility options may increase in demand. Economic trends, therefore, are of significant import to the future of mobility.

• What is the future of work? What, if anything, will replace work that is automated? Assuming there is still work to be done by humans, what is the future of jobs? Is universal basic income a sufficient response to joblessness from automation?
• What is the future of the market economy? Is the sharing economy a shift from capitalism or is it a product within capitalism?
• What is the future of industry clustering? Will the Bay Area tech cluster persist?
• What is the future of the physical workplace? Will we continue to have large office buildings? Downtowns? Industrial areas?

Articles

• Our Automated Future: How Long Will It Be Before You Lose Your Job to a Robot?, New Yorker, December 2016
   “If nearly half the occupations in the U.S. are ‘potentially automatable,’ and if this could play out within ‘a decade or two,’ then we are looking at economic disruption on an unparalleled scale. Picture the entire Industrial Revolution compressed into the life span of a beagle.”
• Enrico Moretti: The Geography of Jobs, Insights by Stanford Business, June 2013
  “In my book, I have a chapter on the difference between Detroit and Silicon Valley. This region has kept reinventing itself in ways that are remarkable. It was all orchards, and then it became all hardware, and then it became all software. And now it’s becoming something else: social media and biotech and clean tech. Some types of clusters don’t survive big negative shocks, and other clusters are able to leverage themselves into the next thing.”
• The Jobs Americans Do, NY Times, February 2017
  “Popular ideas about the working class are woefully out of date. Here are nine people who tell a truer story of what the American work force does today — and will do tomorrow.”
• The Future of Retail, Arup, August 2017
  This report explores the drivers of change that are shaping the future of the retail sector. It reveals important trends that are causing new consumer behaviours and examines some of the likely impacts that these developments will have on future retail environments and service offerings.
• To Save the American Dream, We Have to Change How We Think About Work, FastCompany, March 2017
  “Here’s how we can build a new system of policies and safety nets to bring back opportunity to the American work force. (It has nothing to do with walls, trade deals, or immigration.)”
• A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing, Bloomberg, May 2016
  “The notion that government should guarantee every citizen an annual stipend of, say, $10,000 — no strings attached, no questions asked — is being studied by politicians, economists and policy experts worldwide. Think of it as Social Security for all.”

Videos

• Humans Need Not Apply, CGP Grey, YouTube, August 2014
  Is the automation revolution unique? What jobs are at risk for automation? Will intellectual and creative professions endure? Short documentarian CGP Grey explores these questions in a 2014 viral video.
• How the Blockchain Is Changing Money and Business, Don Tapscott, TED Talks, June 2016
  “What is the blockchain? If you don’t know, you should; if you do, chances are you still need some clarification on how it actually works. Don Tapscott is here to help, demystifying this world-changing, trust-building technology which, he says, represents nothing less than the second generation of the internet and holds the potential to transform money, business, government and society.”

Visualizations

• Automation by Sector, McKinsey Global Institute, January 2017
• Job Automation May Threaten Half of U.S. Workforce, Bloomberg, March 2014

Additional Links

• Where Machines Could Replace Humans—and Where They Can’t (Yet), McKinsey, July 2016
• Bay Area Economy Outpaces U.S., China, SF Chronicle, September 2016
• This Burger-Flipping Bot Is Actually Great AI Design, FastDesign, March 2017
• What Really Makes Silicon Valley Tick?, Harvard Business Review, April 2013
• Living Workplace, Arup, July 2015
• How 4 Million Commutes Shape America’s ‘Megaregions’, CityLab, December 2016

As values change with new generations and shifting social structures, the governments that support these communities must also change. A wide variety of trends – from polarized voting patterns to movements for collaboration or dissent – make the shape of future governance at all levels of authority less clear than in the past.

• What is the future of local government? Will regions gain greater influence or will cities and towns remain primary?
• How will governance structures and processes shift in order to meet the changing needs of the residents, workers, and visitors to the city?
• What other models and approaches can we learn from?
• Will transit and mobility services remain distinct market offerings or will organizations cooperate for greater seamless mobility?

Articles

• The Limits of Metropolitan Planning Organizations, CityLab, April 2012
  “They often lack the authority they need to get things done.”
• Transport Isn’t Technology, It’s Politics, How We Get to Next, February 2017
  “The need for efficient, statewide defense was what initially led to the gargantuan highways system that has profoundly shaped America’s urban and rural space, and with it the entire continent’s predominant mode of transportation.”
• How cities can stand up to climate change, Curbed, February 2017
  “As the White House aims to stifle climate science, cities cooperate globally and plan locally.”
• Seamless Transit, SPUR, March 2015
  “In many ways, having so many different transit systems makes it harder for riders to understand and use the services available to them…By integrating our many public transit services so they function more like one rational, easy-to-use network, we have the opportunity to increase transit ridership and make better planning decisions for the future of our region. SPUR proposes five strategies for integrating transit services across the Bay Area.”
• New Report Highlights Fast Growth of Participatory Budgeting, Shareable.net, September 2016
  “At its essence, PB is a democratic process that gives people direct control over a portion of a budget, whether in government, an organization or a school. It enables people to play an active role in shaping their communities and helps leaders better serve their stakeholders.”

Videos

• Fixing Government: Bottom Up and Outside In, Jennifer Pahlka, Long Now Foundation, February 2017
  “Government drastically needs more tech talent, Pahlka urged, and the user-centered iterative approach could have a broader effect.”
• How Megacities Are Changing the Map of the World, Parag Khanna, TED Talks, February 2016
  “This emerging global network civilization holds the promise of reducing pollution and inequality — and even overcoming geopolitical rivalries. In this talk, Khanna asks us to embrace a new maxim for the future: ‘Connectivity is destiny.’”

Additional Links

• 3 Dire Visions of the Bay Area in 2070 – and 1 That’s Pretty Great, Wired, September 2018
• On Transit Policy, City Leaders Have More Power Than They Think, CityLab, March 2017
• A Shareable Explainer: What is a Platform Co-op?, Shareable.net, August 2016
• Creative Solutions to San Francisco’s Housing Crisis, SF Public Press, Summer 2014
• Do Cities Need a Political Movement?, CityLab, March 2017
• The Economic Power of Cities Compared to Nations, CityLab, March 2017

Challenges for building 21st Century infrastructure are profound. The 20th Century’s political will to invest in high quality, innovative infrastructure has largely faded. Not only is the political will largely absent, but needs have shifted. Instead of simply building more, infrastructure must be smart, resilient, and multi-faceted, and built with a consideration for future maintenance needs.

• What are the opportunities and challenges ahead for infrastructure in the 21st Century?
• How can we integrate climate and disaster resilience into infrastructure planning, upgrades, and repair?
• How can technology usefully upgrade infrastructure?
• Can infrastructure be built for people as well as for systems?
• How will new infrastructure be financed? Should the financing schemas be different for repairing and upgrading existing infrastructure?

Articles

• Infrastructure Grants Could Be on Chopping Block in Trump Budget, The Hill, March 2017
  “While the president’s budget is merely a guide for congressional appropriators, any transportation cuts could increase pressure on Trump to come up with alternative funding solutions in his promised infrastructure package.”
• Crossing Together: Equity Considerations for a Second Transbay Crossing, TransFrom, 2017
  “Key transportation stakeholders in the San Francisco Bay Area are starting to plan seriously for a second rail crossing between San Francisco and Oakland…One thing is for certain: if a “second crossing” project goes forward, it will be a big deal.”
• Rising Reality, SF Chronicle, 2016
  “Chronicle Urban Design Critic John King explores the challenges posed by sea level rise in the Bay Area, from the perils facing San Francisco’s crumbling Embarcadero to the struggles to revive marshes and the creation of a small city on Treasure Island.”
• The Future of Urban Water, Arup, September 2014
  “‘The Future of Urban Water: Scenarios for Water Utilities in 2040′ is the result of a jointly funded collaboration between Arup and Sydney Water. The programme explored trends and future scenarios for the future of urban water utilities in 2040.”
• Infrastructure: Can We Finally Think Big?, American Prospect, October 2016
  “The country’s infrastructure deficit demands a three-pronged response over the next decade: An accelerated maintenance program in sectors from aviation to waterworks, in tandem with the building of the next generation of infrastructure investments worthy of a major international economic power. There is also the need for financing a green transition.”

Videos

• The Future of Global Infrastructure Design, Autodesk InfraWorks 360, YouTube, May 2015
  “Are we ready to address today’s critical infrastructure challenges? What is the future of how infrastructure will be designed, built and managed? Discover how global digital trends and technologies can help deliver more sustainable and resilient infrastructure in this video.”
• The Future of Transportation and Infrastructure in the U.S., Anthony Foxx, August 2015
  “A conversation with Anthony Foxx, U.S. Secretary of Transportation, looking at the question: How will the U.S. rebuild its infrastructure in a period of political gridlock and budget cuts?”
• Civilization’s Infrastructure, James Fallows, Long Now Foundation, October 2015
  “The miracle that enabled the right [infrastructure] decision each time was either an emergency (such as World War II or the Depression), stealth (such as all the works that quietly go forward within the military budget or the medical-industrial complex), or a story (such as Manifest Destiny and the Space Race)…Responding to need or to opportunity, we can tell a tale that inspires us to reinvent and build anew the systems that make our society flourish.”

Visualizations

• Rough Road Ahead: The economic impact of America’s failing transportation infrastructure by 2020, ASCE
• Road to Nowhere: Renewing Americas Transportation Scorecard, Council on Foreign Relations, January 2016
• Surface Transportation Funding Flows among Levels of Government: Spending on Highways and Transit, 2012, Pew Charitable Trusts
• All Levels of Government Fund Highways and Transit: Average Annual Own-Source Spending by Level of Government, 2008-2012, Pew Charitable Trusts

Additional Links

• Smart infrastructure is the key to sustainable development, The Guardian, May 2016
• Mass Transit Won Big on Election Day. But It Could Still Lose, CityLab, November 2016
• Circular Economy in the Built Environment, Arup, December 2016
• The Unique Genius of Hong Kong’s Public Transportation System, Atlantic, September 2013
• A Robot Revolution, The Economist, March 2017

When we shifted from horses and streetcars to cars and buses, everything about mobility and the cities in which we move changed. Today, we may be at such a tipping point again. With the advent of self-driving cars and the growth of carsharing, ridesharing, and bikesharing, mobility is undergoing a significant transformation that could have wide-ranging implications.

• What is the future of self-driving cars? When will they be available for consumer use? Will automated technologies gradually enter the market, or will fully autonomous vehicles suddenly be introduced? How will travel behaviors and the built environment change in response to self-driving cars?
• Will San Francisco and Bay Area cities invest more substantially in walkable, bikeable communities?
• Will electric vehicles finally catch on? (Electric vehicles include passenger vehicles, but also bikes, scooters, and delivery vehicles.)
• Will mobility as a service, instead of transportation as a product, become the dominant business model? In other words, will shared mobility overtake vehicle ownership?

Articles

• Driverless? Autonomous Trucks and the Future of the American Trucker, UC Berkeley Labor Center and Working Partnerships USA, September 2018
  “Will autonomous trucks mean the end of the road for truck drivers?”
• Why Robot Cars Will Need a Lot of Human Help, CityLab, August 2018
  “Google’s self-driving corporate sibling, Waymo, is preparing to launch a commercial robotaxi service outside Phoenix. As that’s happened, the focus of the program has shifted from the technical details of lasers and sensors to the operational details of how to build the system that surrounds the driverless vehicles.”
• The Future of Driving Is Now a Gold Rush, Back Channel, December 2016
  “The first self-driving car experiments are over, and the results are clear. The technology is feasible, becoming increasing affordable, and has a multi-billion dollar potential market. But in 2017 the tough work of scaling and commercializing begins.”
• Tackling Pollution: Beijing’s Electric Bikes and Buses – In Pictures, The Guardian, June 2016
  “Vehicles are the source of a third of the air pollution in the Chinese capital, which restricts their use during episodes of heavy smog. Electric cars, buses, scooters and bicycles offer an alternative, cleaner form of transport.”
• Cities Alive: Towards a Walking World, Arup, August 2016
  “We highlight 50 benefits of walking explored through 16 distinct indicative themes, and list 40 actions that city leaders can consider to inform walking policy, strategy and design. These are informed by a catalogue of 80 international case studies that will inspire action, and further aid cities in identifying and evaluating opportunities.”
• Re-Programming Mobility: The Digital Transformation of Transportation in the United States, New York University, December 2016
  “The hidden nature of these new mobility infrastructures – tiny devices in our pockets communicating over invisible radio waves with algorithms running on servers in the cloud – has conspired to conceal the important public policy and planning issues that their mass adoption raises. While we now recognize the critical importance of understanding how new information technologies will change transportation, there is great uncertainty about how this process will play out.”
• The Best of CityLab’s The Future of Transportation, CityLab, 2014
  “This e-book includes a dozen of our favorite stories from the series: three from each of its main parts (commuting, sustainability, and design), and three companion policy pieces. While it was impossible to choose every great moment, these selections reflect both the geographic and multimodal reach of the series, taking readers across the country on roads, rails, and runways.”

Videos

• The Future of Cities, Oscar Boyson, YouTube, December 2016
  “What does ‘the future of cities’ mean? To much of the developing world, it might be as simple as aspiring to having your own toilet, rather than sharing one with over 100 people. To a family in Detroit, it could mean having non-toxic drinking water. For planners and mayors, it’s about a lot of things — sustainability, economy, inclusivity, and resilience. Most of us can hope we can spend a little less time on our commutes to work and a little more time with our families.” – Oscar Boyson
• San Francisco’s Smart City Challenge, SFMTA, YouTube, June 2016
  “San Francisco is meeting the Department of Transportation’s Smart City Challenge to bring the future of shared, electric, connected, and automated vehicles to all San Franciscans. Together we can build a transportation system that is safer, cleaner, more accessible and more affordable.”
• 16 Questions About Self-Driving Cars, Frank Chen, Vimeo, January 2017
  “Everything that moves, says a16z partner Frank Chen, will go autonomous. But what does that really mean? In this presentation from our a16z Summit, Chen goes over the 16 most commonly asked questions about autonomous cars, and what their answers might be.”
  (Note: The page indicates this video does not exist anymore).

Visualizations

• The Growth of the Autonomous Car Market, Get Off Road, January 2017
• Bike Sharing Sweeps the U.S., People for Bikes, August 2013

Additional Links

• Hackers Remotely Kill a Jeep on the Highway—With Me in It, Wired, July 2015
• Uber and a Bay Area Landlord Will Pay New Tenants $100 a Month to Go Car-Free, The Verge, May 2016
• The Untold Story of Magic Leap, the World’s Most Secretive Startup, Wired, April 2016
• Shared Mobility and the Transformation of Public Transit, APTA, September 2016
• No Parking Here: The Future of Parking, Mother Jones, January 2016
• New York Streets? Not So Mean Any More, TEDCity 2.0, September 2013

Cities are for people. In the reinvestment and reinvention that has characterized urbanization over the last several years, urban designers, advocates, and city leaders have embraced this seemingly simple concept. From this basic mantra, many movements to evolve urban spaces as places for people have flourished.

• How can we embrace universal design to encourage urban exploration no matter a person’s ability, age, or background?
• How can spaces encourage authentic urban experiences? What is an authentic urban experience?
• Through adaptive reuse, how can we reinvent historic buildings, transportation infrastructure, and other community assets?
• How can we prioritize urban greening to enable greater wellness and sustainability?

Articles

• Can We Design Cities for Happiness?, Shareable.net, March 2010
  “Quality of life is not just a phrase to [former mayor of Bogotá, Colombia Enrique] Peñalosa. He is firmly dedicated to giving everyone in a city more opportunity for recreation, education, transportation and the chance to take pleasure in their surroundings.”
• Can These 10 Pop-Up Housing Concepts Change the Way We Think About Urban Living?, The Coolist, various dates
  “From student housing to disaster relief, artist studios and homeless shelters, these compact housing systems could change the way we think about urban living.”
• How Leftover Urban Spaces Can Fix Big Problems for San Francisco, SPUR, March 2011
  “That’s a lot of city-owned land just sitting there collecting plastic bags. Their shape, size and location — often alongside highways or near industry — make these leftover lots unusable for traditional development. But what if there was a way to reclaim them for public use?”
• 20 Creative Adaptive Reuse Projects, ArchDaily, March 2016
  “Whether due to environmental reasons, land availability or the desire to conserve a historic landmark, countless architectural firms worldwide are turning to adaptive reuse as a solution to some of the modern problems of the built environment.”
• Cities Alive: Green Building Envelope, Arup, September 2013
  Can retrofitting cityscapes with vegetation improve the health and well-being of urban citizens? Can we use green facades to capture renewable energy and drive sustainability? Experts from eight Arup skill networks across the globe cross-examine these questions with a view to shape better cities. The comprehensive research considers whether green building envelopes can have a special role to play in improving our cities for their inhabitants.
• A Playbook on the Politics of Better Streets, CityLab, March 2016
  “During her tenure as New York City’s transportation commissioner, Janette Sadik-Khan oversaw the addition of 400 miles of new bike lanes, helped implement the nation’s largest bike-sharing system, converted 60 plazas into spaces where people could sit and relax, and repurposed 180 acres of asphalt for pedestrian and bike use.”
• Former Transportation commissioner Janette Sadik-Khan ruined our streets, New York Post, March 2016
  “Three years since Janette Sadik-Khan left her post as the city’s commissioner of Transportation, what has her ruinous tampering with historic traffic patterns wrought?… A streetscape that is more disorderly looking than it was in the crime-wracked decades from the 1970s-’90s. “Plazas” are occupied mainly by tourists and bums. Left-turn lanes are so confusing that no one — walkers, cyclists or drivers — knows what to do!”

Videos

• Why buses represent democracy in action, Enrique Peñalosa, TED Talks, September 2013
  “‘An advanced city is not one where even the poor use cars, but rather one where even the rich use public transport,’ argues Enrique Peñalosa. In this spirited talk, the mayor of Bogotá shares some of the tactics he used to change the transportation dynamic in the Colombian capital… and suggests ways to think about building smart cities of the future.”
• Design with the blind in mind, Chris Downey, TED Talks, October 2013
  “What would a city designed for the blind be like? Chris Downey is an architect who went suddenly blind in 2008; he contrasts life in his beloved San Francisco before and after — and shows how the thoughtful designs that enhance his life now might actually make everyone’s life better, sighted or not.”

Additional Links

• Interview: Jan Gehl on London, streets, cycling and creating cities for people, The Guardian, January 2014
• In German Suburb, Life Goes On Without Cars, New York Times, May 2009

Public health is intimately tied to the shape of a community – its development patterns, transportation networks, and open spaces. In poorer and more disadvantaged communities, the built environment is often ill-designed for fostering public health. Planning for healthier, more active, more inclusive communities is key to ensuring a better future for San Francisco.

• How will changes in public health affect people’s transportation choices? Conversely, how will transportation and land use decisions affect public health outcomes?
• What trends are shaping the future of public health?

Articles

• Online Report Card Shows S.F. Health Disparities SF Gate, September 2010
  “San Franciscans who live in the Bayview-Hunters Point neighborhood can expect to live 14 fewer years on average than people who live on Russian Hill.”
• Pedestrian Deaths Remain Steady as SF Rolls Out New Safety Measures SF Examiner, December 2016
  “With an unwavering number of pedestrian deaths and injuries annually, The City in 2014 joined other cities rocked by similar fatality statistics by adopting Vision Zero, a plan to stamp out all traffic-related pedestrian injuries and deaths. The City’s goal is a 50 percent reduction by 2021 and reaching zero deaths by 2024.”
• The Rich Live Longer Everywhere. For the Poor, Geography Matters New York Times, April 2016
  “The top 1 percent in income among American men live 15 years longer than the poorest 1 percent; for women, the gap is 10 years.”
• Greener Pastures: Charles Montgomery’s ‘Happy City’ New York Times, January 2014
  “One of the most remarkable developments in social science in the past decade has been the emergence of happiness as a subject of serious scholarship and experimental study.”
• Mapping the Link between Obesity and Car Driving Fast Company, November 2014
  “After analyzing national statistics between 1985 and 2007, researchers at the University of Illinois found that vehicle use (measured in annual vehicle miles traveled) correlated 99% with annual obesity rates.”

Videos

• Urban Design – Transport and Population Health Mark Stevenson, Melbourne School of Design, YouTube, September 2016
  “A new series published in The Lancet, led by the University of Melbourne and featuring authors from leading global academic institutions, quantifies for the first time the health outcomes that could be gained through changes to urban design and the transport system.”
• Public Health as an Urban Solution Leana Wen, Tedx Talks, February 2016
  “As the Commissioner of Health in Baltimore, Dr. Wen has been reimagining the role of public health. She has engaged public health in violence prevention and launched an opioid overdose prevention program that is training every resident to save lives.”
• How Barbershops Can Keep Men Healthy Joseph Ravenell, TED Talks, February 2016
  “The barbershop can be a safe haven for black men, a place for honest conversation and trust — and, as physician Joseph Ravenell suggests, a good place to bring up tough topics about health.”

New generations are coming of age and impacting the world with new decision-making paradigms. Millennials are less interested in driving, while Boomers plan for post-driving life. Cities are becoming more attractive for all generations, while the dialogue around suburbs concerns retrofitting not expanding. Meanwhile, US culture is undergoing subtle but noticeable shifts in response to these changes.

• How might demographic and generational shifts shape lifestyle choices, values, and citizenry?
• How might preferences for where to live and work, and how to get around, evolve?
• How might new technologies enable different choices for owning and driving cars?

Articles

• Millennials Lead the Trend to Less Driving, But What Happens As They Get Older?, CityLab, May 2013
  “This question lurks behind every celebrated trend story about the Millennial generation: Will this group really push systemic change (as the baby boomers did) in how Americans live, work and relate to each other (sharing cars, for instance, as opposed to owning them)? Or is this moment – with its associated driving patterns – a hiccup in history?”
• What Millennials Want, and Why It Doesn’t Matter, Planetizen, June 2016
  “The debate about whether Millennials prefer urban or suburban misses a big, important point: what Millennials really prefer is possible in either setting.”
• Cultural Creatives Are Changing the World, Huffington Post, May 2016
  “There is a shift happening in terms of understanding your market. Instead of focusing on demographics and traditional marketing means, an emerging trend is to look at the market from a values perspective.”
• A Portrait of “Generation Next”: How Young People View Their Lives, Futures and Politics, Pew Research Center, January 2007
  “A new generation has come of age, shaped by an unprecedented revolution in technology and dramatic events both at home and abroad. They are Generation Next, the cohort of young adults who have grown up with personal computers, cell phones and the internet and are now taking their place in a world where the only constant is rapid change.”
• Demographic Shifts: Shaping the Future of Car Ownership, Knowledge@Wharton, February 2017
  “Rather than retiring, 87% say a shorter commute to work is a major reason for their move to the city.”

Videos

• What’s Mine Is Yours, Rachel Botsman, YouTube, August 2010
  A “Big Shift” from the 20th century, a time defined by hyper-consumption, to a 21st century age of Collaborative Consumption, is underway.
• Retrofitting Suburbia, Ellen Dunham-Jones, TED Talks, June 2010
  “Can we rebuild our broken suburbs? Ellen Dunham-Jones shares a vision of dying malls rehabilitated, dead “big box” stores re-inhabited, and endless parking lots transformed into thriving wetlands.”

Visualizations

• Aggregate Vehicle-Miles Traveled in the United States under Several Scenarios of Future Travel Growth, 1946-2040, US PIRG Education Fund, May 2013

San Francisco’s Adaptive Capacity

San Francisco will face significant challenges in the coming decades. On top of the fundamental challenge of sea level rise, the city will likely continue to face a housing and affordability dilemma as population continues to grow. San Francisco’s adaptive capacity is key to the future of the city.

• With housing crisis likely to continue as population grows, how will San Francisco and the larger Bay Area respond?
• Is San Francisco prepared for sea level rise?

Articles

• The Battle for the Soul of San Francisco Healing the Tension between Wealthy Tech Workers and Their Impoverished Neighbors, Wired, February 2017
  “The socioeconomic Maginot Line that long kept the TL apart from the rest of the city has in recent years been breached, as tech companies have pressed closer with their lavish mid-Market offices and well-paid young employees.”
• How Burrowing Owls Lead to Vomiting Anarchists (Or SF’s Housing Crisis Explained), TechCrunch, April 2014
  “If you’re wondering why people are protesting you, how we got to this housing crisis, why rent control exists or why tech is even shifting to San Francisco in the first place, this is meant to provide some common points of understanding.”
• Mission Creek Sea Level Rise Adaptation Study, SPUR, September 2016
  “Located on San Francisco’s eastern waterfront, Mission Creek is one of the city’s lowest lying areas. That means it’s potentially vulnerable to storm surges, flooding and future sea level rise. This study considers different design concepts to ‘hold the line’ on sea level rise at Mission Creek and weighs the pros and cons of each.”
• Cities Alive: Rethinking Green Infrastructure, Arup, June 2015
  “Cities Alive – Rethinking green infrastructure – shows how the creation of a linked ‘city ecosystem’ that encompasses parks and open spaces; urban trees, streets, squares; woodland and waterways can help create healthier, safer and more prosperous cities.”
• The Quest to Grow Cities from Scratch, Co.Design, March 2017
  “Biologists have been experimenting with building materials made with living organisms for years. When will they be used to build our cities?”
• Silicon Valley, Housing Villain, Tries to Make Amends, New York Times, October 2016
  “Silicon Valley tech companies have often been blamed for the Bay Area’s crushing rise in rent and home prices. But over the past few months, a number of Silicon Valley executives and financiers, along with hordes of rank-and-file workers, have started to throw political support behind the growing fight over how to build more housing in California.”

Videos

• Bay Area economists look to a cooler future, ‘day of reckoning’, San Francisco Business Times, December 2016
  “Will the Bay Area economy remain strong in 2017? What’s in store for commercial and residential real estate? How will Trump’s election affect our region? We asked four local economists to weigh in.”

Across the US, the middle class is shrinking, and San Francisco has one of the smallest in the nation. Though GDP and other macroeconomic indicators may look bullish, studies show that health and happiness are much more correlated to rates of income inequality. Prioritizing equity will continue to be a challenge in San Francisco’s future.

• What is the appropriate public response to inequality? Are there effective tools the public sector can leverage to address income disparity, affordability, displacement and other dimensions of social inequity?
• Is inequality likely to worsen in SF, or will the situation will improve over time?
• How can mobility improve for everyone?

Articles

• Inclusive Transit: Advancing Equity Through Improved Access & Opportunity, TransitCenter, July 2018
  “Access to high-quality public transportation can make cities more inclusive, increasing mobility and opportunity, particularly for people with low incomes and people of color.”
• Who is moving into — and out of — SF?, 48Hills, October 2016
  “A whopping 12% of the city’s population turns over every year—so while the news has focused on all the people moving in to the city, the other side of the equation is that approximately 50,000 residents have been leaving San Francisco annually over the last five years.”
• Inequality Is Killing the American Dream, FiveThirtyEight, December 2016
  “Decades of rising income inequality and slowing economic growth have eroded a pillar of the American dream: the hope that each generation will do better than the one that came before.”
• America’s ‘Big Sort’ Is Only Getting Bigger, CityLab, October 2016
  “On the one hand, like-minded people cluster together or with other like-minded people, and on the other, such clustering together makes people more like-minded.”
• Fixing Wealth Inequality: Future Generations Will Think Us Mad, and They Will Be Right, The Guardian, August 2016
  “We ignore the distributional outcomes of globalisation and unfettered market capitalism at our peril.”
• Black Lives Matter: Birth of a Movement, The Guardian, January 2017
  “The killing of Michael Brown created a new generation of black activists, with thousands taking to the streets, and a hashtag used more than 27m times. But will the movement survive the Trump era?”
• Commutes to San Francisco get longer for those earning under 40k, SF Chronicle, December 2015
  “The median commute distance for people who work in San Francisco and earn less than $40,000 jumped from 9 miles in 2008 to almost 15 miles in 2013, according to a study by Zillow.”

Videos

• Wealth Inequality in America, Perception vs Reality, politizane, YouTube, November 2012
  “Infographics on the distribution of wealth in America, highlighting both the inequality and the difference between our perception of inequality and the actual numbers. The reality is often not what we think it is.” (Additional watch link)
• Inequality for All, Robert Reich, Various formats, 2013
  “A documentary that follows former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich as he looks to raise awareness of the country’s widening economic gap.” – IMDB
• Hotel 22, New York Times, YouTube, January 2015
  “In Silicon Valley, the region’s homeless use a 24-hour bus line as a shelter at night.” (Additional watch link)

Visualizations

• Zillow analysis of US Census statistics, SF Chronicle, December 2015

Additional Links

• Girl Statue Faces Wall Street Bull to Fight Gender Inequality, BBC News, March 2017
• Lifelong Learning Is Becoming an Economic Imperative, The Economist, January 2017